Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: This is the second of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: This is the first of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: This is the first of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: This is the second of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: The SOA's Committee on Finance Research is please to make available the results of this research project, jointly sponsored by the SOA and CAS, that explores economic series and provides and Excel based tool for generating future economic scenarios. This is an Excel Spreadsheet for Appendix C showing Simulated Financial Scenario Data of inflation rates and interest rates from this research project. Please see the SOA website for the full report and other related spreadsheets.

Description: The SOA's Committee on Finance Research is please to make available the results of this research project, jointly sponsored by the SOA and CAS, that explores economic series and provides and Excel based tool for generating future economic scenarios. This is an Excel Spreadsheet for Appendix C showing Simulated Financial Scenario Data of inflation rates and interest rates from this research project. Please see the SOA website for the full report and other related spreadsheets.

Description: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) is in the middle of a project to change the real-world economic scenario generator (RW ESG) prescribed for principle-based reserve and capital calculations. Explore a brief summary of the NAIC's RW ESG project and gain a general overview of RW ESGs. Learn how RW ESGs impact principle-based reserve and capital levels, their potential impact on life insurance companies and consider differences between the currently prescribed RW ESG and the proposed RW ESG.